Social Sciences

Attitudes Toward Artificial General Intelligence: Results from American Adults in 2021 and 2023

Author: Jason Jeffrey Jones and Steven Skiena
Date: February, 2024
Area: Social Sciences, Technology
Text: PDF, Substack

A compact, inexpensive repeated survey on American adults’ attitudes toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) revealed a stable ordering but changing magnitudes of agreement toward three statements. Contrasting 2021 to 2023, American adults increasingly agreed AGI was possible to build. Respondents agreed more weakly that AGI should be built. Finally, American adults mostly disagree that an AGI should have the same rights as a human being; disagreeing more strongly in 2023 than in 2021.

The Economics of Time Travel

Author: Stuart Mills
Date: December, 2023
Area: Social Sciences
Text: PDF, Substack

The lack of time travellers visiting us may be seen as evidence that time travel is not possible. In this article, I argue an alternative explanation is that we are not economically important enough to our descendants to justify the costs of time travel. Using a cost-benefit analysis, I elaborate on this argument. I suggest that the major cost of time travel is likely to be the energy cost, whilst the largest benefit of time travel is knowledge which the present possesses, but the future has lost. Focusing on this benefit, I argue it is extremely unlikely that we possess a piece of knowledge which is sufficiently important to a future civilisation (system critical), but also has been lost by said civilisation. This is to say, we may not have been visited by time travellers because we are not important enough.

Scientific Theories and Their Psychological Corollaries: The Ecological Crisis as a Case Study in the Need for Synthesis

Author: Arnold Schroder
Date: December, 2023
Area: Metascience, Scientific Ethics, Social Sciences
Text: PDF, Substack

That policy makers will ever rationally respond to scientific warnings about the ecological crisis should be treated as a falsifiable hypothesis. After more than five decades of such warnings, there is a strong case for skepticism. Climate and other ecological tipping points constitute the quantitative thresholds beyond which current political systems can definitively be said to have failed. This presents a mandate to generate broad consensus on where tipping points lie, and at what proximity to them new strategies should be pursued. Central to any new strategy should be an understanding of why the old one failed—an understanding of why those in power almost exclusively derive from academic backgrounds other than physical science, and the psychological differences between those who issued or received so many warnings of collapse. To that end, a psychological trait syndrome relevant to political power is proposed, based on correlations between academic specialization, psychometric results, and the behavior of powerful people across a wide range of societies. This proposed syndrome consists of four covarying dimensions of individual difference. These are perceptions of hierarchy vs. egalitarianism, established knowledge vs. open inquiry, physical vs. symbolic action, and schematic vs. particular knowledge.

Forager Facts

Author: David Youngberg and Robin Hanson
Date: August, 2023
Areas: Biology, Psychology, Social Sciences
Text: PDF, Substack

Using an anthropology database that details many groups, we summarize how our forager ancestors likely lived on a variety of metrics. Though we have long since ceased to live as hunter-gatherers, its psychological shadow likely still shapes us, and so we would try to understand that lifestyle as fully as possible.

We See The Sacred From Afar, To See It The Same

Author: Robin Hanson
Date: June, 2023
Areas: Psychology, Social Sciences
Text: PDF, Substack

68 reported correlates of treating things as “sacred” are listed, and collected into seven themes. Most can be plausibly explained via two hypotheses. The first, taken from Durkheim, is that treating things as sacred mainly functions to bind groups together via a shared view of it. The second hypothesis, suggested by psychology’s construal level theory, is that humans acquired a habit of seeing sacred things as if from afar, even when they are close, to more consistently see those things the same as others in their groups.

Principles of Categorization: A Synthesis

Author: Davood Gozli
Date: June, 2023
Areas: Metascience, Psychology, Social Sciences
Text: PDF

The present article explores the nature of categorization and its role in shaping our relationship with reality. Drawing on Jens Mammen's distinction between sense categories and choice categories, and Eleanor Rosch's principles of categorization, I examine how our attitudes and modes of engagement with categories can reveal important insights relevant not only to psychology but other scientific fields as well. Furthermore, I argue that the connection between sense and choice categories can be traced by examining atypical instances and non-basic-level categories, which highlight the role of subjects embedded in particular situations. In general, categorization is an active process, influenced by our interests and commitments, even though it does not always appear as such. By correcting biases in our treatment of concepts and categories, we can ultimately correct our biases in scientific practices, thus revealing the entanglement of categorization with broader epistemological issues.

Notes on the Inexact Sciences

Date: November, 2022
Author: Suspended Reason
Areas: Metascience, Psychology, Social Sciences
Text: PDF, Substack

Popular wisdom warns us against premature optimization. And yet, in a quest for public legitimacy and tidy problem domains, many fields discourage vitally necessary descriptive and conceptual work in favor of statistical analysis and laboratory experiments. Topics of unprecedented complexity are tackled using rote, mechanical approaches, by researchers who routinely fail to realize how much linguistic and conceptual clarification is a precondition of headway. Meanwhile, sociological and professional incentives prevent the sorts of synthetic work that might de-provincialize researchers' theories, and initiate exactly those conceptual refactorings which would advance the discipline.

The Cult Deficit: Analysis and Speculation

Author: Roger’s Bacon
Date: May, 2022
Areas: Psychology, Science Education, Social Sciences, Technology
Text: PDF, Substack

Using a dataset derived from the long-running “Cults” podcast by Parcast, I find that the number of new cults began to increase in the 50s, peaked in the 70s-80s, and has been in steady decline in recent decades. I discuss various factors (historical, technological, cultural, pharmacological) that may have played a role in the rise and fall of cults since the 1950s and speculate on what the future may hold.

Copies and Random Decision: a proposal to peacefully the conflict around looted art

Author: Bruno S. Frey
Date: October, 2021
Areas: Scientific Ethics, Social Sciences, Technology
Text: PDF

“I propose a novel approach to deal with the conflict between the present owners and the original owners of looted art. The procedure is based on perfect copying (which is possible today due to digital techniques) and random procedures (which are a means to achieve a fair outcome).”